Space SAFETY: Avoiding the Chaosverse

The space age promises humanity unprecedented opportunities—instantaneous global communications, precise navigation, weather prediction, and scientific discovery beyond our wildest dreams. Yet as I penned my science fiction novel "Chaos from the Cosmos," I found myself drawn not toward the utopian potential of these magnificent technologies, but toward the darker possibilities that emerge when we fail to adequately safeguard our orbital infrastructure. While space technologies offer us a genuinely utopian future of enhanced human capability and knowledge, I chose to write a dystopia instead. Why? Because, frankly, nobody wants to read about everything going right. But more importantly, as we develop these wonderful technologies, we must also take extreme care to prevent the "Chaosverse" from becoming reality.

The convergence of multiple space-related threats—from nuclear weapons in orbit to cascading debris collisions—represents an existential risk to our increasingly space-dependent civilization.

To to stimulate discussion and encourage broader participation in space safety considerations, I would like to outline practical ideas to ensure a safer relationship with space in the future, preventing the dystopian scenarios I've imagined from manifesting in our real world.

The Foundation: Treating Space Infrastructure as Critical Infrastructure

The first and most crucial step toward preventing a space-based catastrophe is for governments to formally identify space services as critical infrastructure. This designation should prompt satellites and space-based systems to be recognized as essential services and facilities that, if disrupted or destroyed, would have significant impacts on a country's ability to function. In our current reality, where military operations depend on satellites for warfare, and civilians rely on them for communications, power grid synchronization, transportation, banking, and emergency services, space infrastructure requires the same protection level as power plants, water systems, and telecommunications networks.

This critical infrastructure designation should trigger several protective measures, inluding: mandatory cybersecurity standards specifically designed for space systems, hardening requirements against electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, and rapid replacement capabilities in case of system failures.

Investment in Research and Development: Our Shield Against the Unknown

Beyond regulatory frameworks, we must significantly expand our investment in space-related research and development.

Radiation protection represents one of the most pressing needs. While improved shielding technologies continue to develop, fascinating experiments are being conducted into removing Earth's radiation belts within weeks or months following incidents. If this becomes reality, it would revolutionize space travel by reducing the technological burden on astronauts traveling to and from deep space.

The development of comprehensive space weather monitoring and prediction systems has become essential. Technologies to better understand the space radiation environment, coupled with rapid information dissemination to satellite operators, would enable ground controllers to introduce countermeasures such as orbital adjustments to avoid radiation or transitioning satellites to safe mode during dangerous periods.

These investments serve dual purposes, protecting us not only against human-caused threats but also against natural recurring events like solar storms. The sun periodically "burps" massive amounts of charged particles toward Earth, and while our magnetic field provides some protection, large enough emissions could create global effects similar to nuclear explosions in space. Historical precedents remind us of this threat's reality: telegraph systems suffered damage in the 1800s, North America experienced power outages in 1989, and as recently as 2022, forty Starlink satellites were knocked out of orbit due to solar activity.

Support for space weather programs represents a relatively inexpensive investment with enormous protective potential. Unlike nuclear explosions, solar eruptions take time to reach Earth, providing opportunities for early warning systems. Guardian satellites positioned closer to the sun could provide advance warning after major solar explosions, enabling simple but effective protective measures such as temporarily shutting down sensitive equipment while radiation passes.

Premium Quality Infrastructure: Balancing Innovation with Resilience

The rise of commercial space companies—the New Space industry—has brought welcome innovation and cost reductions to space access. However, we must ensure that critical infrastructure doesn't fall victim to market failures that prioritize cost savings over security and resilience. While competitive pricing drives innovation, safety cannot be compromised.

The temptation for commercial operators to rely on cheap, off-the-shelf components creates vulnerability. Consider the potential consequences if the world experiences a major solar storm or nuclear event: any critical space systems without proper hardening will fail catastrophically. Government customers and regulators must establish and enforce high specifications that prioritize resilience over mere cost considerations.

Rapid Response Capabilities: Deterrence Through Readiness

When events go wrong due to unforeseen circumstances or force majeure, the world needs mechanisms to quickly replace malfunctioning space assets. Historical launch processes involved lengthy lead times, but this situation is improving due to increased launcher availability and launch site accessibility. This enhancement offers possibilities for creating resilient space capabilities capable of providing rapid relaunch when needed.

This improvement in lead time also serves as a deterrent against space warfare. An adversary knowing their opponent can quickly launch and replace critical space-based assets may be less inclined to attack in the first place, as the possibility of retaliation against their own space systems would be too high.

Terrestrial Resilience: Backup Systems for Space Dependencies

We should simultaneously pursue ways to improve our resilience on Earth using non-space assets. Denmark has implemented offline payment systems that function without Internet connectivity. Finnish authorities are building networks of grocery stores that will operate during electricity and network failures. Research continues into strengthening transformers and electrical grids against geomagnetic disturbances.

Several countries including China, Russia, South Korea, and France are investing in radio-based backup systems for satellite navigation. While these systems aren't perfect replacements, they could potentially cover critical sectors at reasonable cost. Such land-based systems offer immediate value as they resist jamming and spoofing attempts. Northern Europe currently suffers from daily satellite navigation jamming, causing regular outages—backup systems would reduce the attractiveness of attacking primary systems.

Military Considerations: Making Space Attacks Unattractive

From a military perspective, making space asset attacks unattractive requires strategic disaggregation—ensuring backup systems exist across various orbits. For Europe, this means building autonomous military satellite communication systems: multi-orbit, encrypted, jam-proof capabilities able to withstand nuclear exchanges while offering military broadband and mobile communication through direct-to-device technology. Civilian versions could follow, leveraging research and development investments to establish more secure communication backbones. While expensive, the cost of inaction could prove far greater.

The Most Important Element: Peace and International Cooperation

This brings us to the most critical point of all: peace. For decades, space remained exempt from political tensions and served as a bridge for scientific collaboration. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case. The invasion of Ukraine ended most space collaboration between Europe and Russia. Russia has lost significant engineering capabilities over recent decades, making future collaborations less attractive regardless of political considerations.

New players like China are joining the space race, though collaboration with China remains controversial due to security concerns and big power politics. Rather than engaging in those debates, I believe it would be valuable to build real partnerships with the global south. The war in Ukraine exposed a growing north-south divide, and space could serve as a bridge to unite us—just as it functioned as an east-west bridge during the latter Cold War years.

Africa, with its need for improved communications, land monitoring, and marine observation, offers enormous potential for space technology applications. The arrival of a new generation including millions of African academics creates opportunities for meaningful partnerships.

Collective Action Needed

Space represents a natural global commons that we are increasingly failing to treat as such. It can bring us immense progress, but also great tragedy if we don't work together and care for it properly. The window for preventing cascading failures in our space infrastructure may be narrower than we think.

The suggestions outlined above—from treating space as critical infrastructure to fostering international cooperation—represent initial ideas rather than comprehensive solutions. These recommendations, written from a personal perspective as a space enthusiast rather than as an engineer or scientist, draw from open sources and ongoing public debate. Future contributions from space and non-space engineering colleagues will undoubtedly enrich these ideas through their professional work and public participation.

Yet the urgency remains clear: we stand at a crossroads where the utopian potential of space technology could transform human civilization for the better, or where our failure to properly safeguard these systems could lead to the very "Chaosverse" I depicted in fiction. The choice between utopia and dystopia isn't predetermined—it depends on the actions we take today.

Ad Astra! To the stars!—but let's ensure we get there safely, and that the incredible technologies that will carry us forward remain secure, accessible, and beneficial for all humanity.